04/04/2013

GOLD

CHANGE IN STATUS: BEARISH 100%

ORDER TO OPEN: SELL @ $1603 -$1610 **TARGET ACHIEVED**

CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS
12 MARCH JUN13 $1300 PUT
12 MARCH JUN13 $1400 PUT
 
POSITIONS CLOSED
14 MARCH BUY @ $1590.82 STOP @ $1584.82




NOTES: ANTICIPATED SEVERE DECLINE POSSIBLY IN PROGRESS

BUY POSITIONS ORDERS TO OPEN WILL BE POSTED AFTER 22:30 BST EACH DAY. ALL SHORT TERM BUY POINTS WILL BE ACTED UPON DESPITE OVERALL MARKET STATUS. HOWEVER MARKET STATUS VALUE IS USED TO DETERMINE RISK ALLOCATION.

ALL DATA SUPPLIED BY GFT ALGO.

APRIL 2013

GOLD

MONTHLY OPEN $1595.60
MONTHLY OPEN STATUS: BEARISH 84%

ORDER TO OPEN: SELL @ $1603 -$1610

CURRENT OPEN POSITIONS
12 MARCH JUN13 $1300 PUT
12 MARCH JUN13 $1400 PUT
14 MARCH BUY @ $1590.82 STOP @ $1584.82

NOTES: ANTICIPATED SEVERE DECLINE STILL IN PLAY ODDS REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING MARCH.

BUY POSITIONS ORDERS TO OPEN WILL BE POSTED AFTER 22:30 BST EACH DAY. ALL SHORT TERM BUY POINTS WILL BE ACTED UPON DESPITE OVERALL MARKET STATUS. HOWEVER MARKET STATUS VALUE IS USED TO DETERMINE RISK ALLOCATION.

ALL DATA SUPPLIED BY GFT ALGO.

MARCH 2013

GOLD

MONTHLY OPEN: $1579.6
MONTHLY OPEN STATUS: BEARISH 100%

ORDER TO OPEN: $1615 SELL

POSITIONS OPENED: 
12 MARCH JUN13 $1300 PUT
12 MARCH JUN13 $1400 PUT

14 MARCH BUY@ $1590.82 STOP @$1584.82

NOTES: ANTICIPATED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE DECLINE IN GOLD NOT MATERIALIZED DURING MARCH. HOWEVER DESPITE BULLISH SHORT TERM SETUP PRICE HAS FAILED TO RISE ABOVE ANTICIPATED RESISTANCE.

BUY POSITIONS/ORDERS TO OPEN WILL BE POSTED AFTER 22:00 HOURS EACH DAY. ALL SHORT TERM BUY POINTS ARE ACTED UPON DESPITE OVERALL MARKET STATUS. HOWEVER MARKET STATUS VALUE IS USED TO DETERMINE RISK ALLOCATION.

ALL DATA SUPPLIED BY: GFT ALGO.

The long view on Gold

Below is a chart of the USD in relation to other paper currencies and a log chart of Gold over the same period. As highlighted everytime the USD nears its long term support line the price of Gold surges. This shows the fear that exists amongst traders and investors as to the long term health of the world's reserve currency.

Below is a gold chart showing the full extent of Gold's bull run so far. Notice how gold has merely broken above its ten year trend line and is consolidating there. The trendline was broken to the upside as the politicians haggled over the debt ceiling and the markets began to realise that there is no political will in the US to balance its budget.

Nothing has changed since the debacle. Gold has merely consolidated above the trend line as the subsequent downgrade was not as catastrophic as feared.

By September 2012 the US Govt will no doubt need to raid its citizens' pension funds to stay afloat. The US fiscal situation is deteriorating rapidly.

Please also note that Gold had risen for eight straight years before anybody had ever heard of quantative easing. Gold investors knew money printing was the inevitable outome of a multi decade debt binge long before our autistic politicians and central bankers had a clue what a disaster they were creating.

We are always vigilant to outliers that could lead to a surge in the USD and a subsequent fall in the price of Gold such as the European debt crisis or Japan's rapidly deteriorating fiscal crisis and demographic timebomb but for now we feel that golds best days lie ahead.